At the moment, I still lean toward the scenario that the market is in a corrective wave, forming a rebound from the March 26 bottom until now.
Since gold is currently in the final phase of this daily timeframe retracement, the price action on H1 is highly volatile and noisy.
Therefore, we will move to a higher timeframe for a clearer perspective and analyze the current gold situation in more detail.
⚡ Momentum
W1 (Weekly Momentum):
Currently increasing. Up to now, we have had 4 consecutive bullish weeks.
→ This move may continue into next week, pushing W1 into the overbought zone before a reversal.
D1 (Daily Momentum):
Has shown signs of a bullish reversal.
→ There is a probability of continued upward movement or sideways action until the end of this week.
H4 (4H Momentum):
Currently increasing.
→ The upward or sideways movement may continue for another 2–3 H4 candles before entering the overbought zone and reversing.
🔷 Elliott Wave Structure
W1 Structure:
The current bullish move has lasted for 4 weekly candles.
→ There is a high probability of a reversal by the end of this week or next week.
Price has not broken the previous high so far.
→ This suggests that the market may still be in a corrective structure, likely an abcde pattern.
→ After completing wave D, a downward move is expected to complete wave E.
We can draw the two boundaries of the triangle to monitor price behavior.
→ Wave E is expected to approach the lower boundary of the triangle.
After the structure is completed, a new trend is likely to form.
D1 Structure:
With D1 momentum showing signs of a bullish reversal,
→ Wave D top is likely not completed yet.
The upward move may continue today and tomorrow,
→ and may even extend into next week to complete wave D.
We will move down to H4 to identify resistance zones,
→ which will act as potential target areas for the completion of wave D.
H4 Structure:
A WXY structure appears to be forming.
Notably, wave Y may be developing into an ending triangle.
→ If this scenario is correct, a strong downward move could occur once the pattern is completed.
We will continue to monitor price action closely.
The confluence zone between the upper boundary of the triangle and liquidity targets at 4916 – 4953
→ is a potential area for the completion of the current corrective wave.
🎯 Conclusion
Current trading bias:
– Upward moves may still continue
– However, they are not strong
– And there is a high risk of reversal at any time
→ Therefore, short-term trading is preferred in this phase.
We should wait for key conditions:
→ Price reaches the target zone
→ Momentum shows a bearish reversal
→ At that point, we will have a clearer and more reliable sell position.