- BTC holds above 75k, up 4.5% this week on improving risk sentiment
- Easing oil prices and record US equities boost risk appetite
- Exchange inflows spike, signalling potential selling pressure from large holders
- ETF on track for 3rd straight week of net inflows
- BTC technical analysis
is trading around $75,000, holding on to gains from earlier in the week as risk appetite improves ahead of potential US–Iran peace talks this weekend.
The largest cryptocurrency has gained just under 5% over the week, while is up around 7% and continues to trade above $2,300.
Macro Headlines Are Supportive
Bitcoin’s rise has come alongside a broader risk-on move across global financial markets.
US equities are on track for a third consecutive weekly gain and have pushed to record highs, while remain below $100 per barrel — helping to ease inflation concerns.
Sentiment has been supported by signs of de-escalation in the Middle East. President Trump said on Thursday that Israel had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire with Lebanon and indicated that Washington and Tehran could resume diplomatic talks over the weekend.
Markets are leaning into the idea that the conflict may be nearing an end — even though the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed due to the US blockade.
This highlights a key dynamic: Bitcoin is currently being driven more by macro developments than crypto-specific factors, tracking the same sentiment shifts seen across equities and commodities.
Exchange Inflows Signal Potential Selling Pressure
However, beneath the surface, some indicators point to a more cautious outlook. A sharp increase in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges suggests that large holders may be preparing to sell.
Hourly Bitcoin inflows to exchanges have risen to 11,000 BTC — the highest level since December. Historically, such spikes have often coincided with increased selling pressure, particularly near key resistance levels.
A similar pattern was observed in March, when inflows reached 9,000 BTC ahead of a short-term price pullback. Given that the latest reading exceeds that level, the risk of a near-term correction may be elevated.
At the same time, daily Bitcoin deposits to exchanges have risen to 2.25 BTC, marking the highest level since July 2024. These flows appear to be driven by large transactions, with individual deposits exceeding 1,000 BTC — typically associated with whale activity.
This suggests that some large holders may be distributing into strength.
Institutional Demand Provides a Partial Offset
That said, institutional demand continues to offer some support. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a third consecutive day of net inflows and are on track for a third straight week of positive flows, totalling $332.4 million as of Thursday.
These inflows are important because they help absorb supply and can limit downside pressure, even when short-term selling by large holders emerges.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
Bitcoin trades within an ascending channel dating back to early February. The price has risen above the multi-month falling downtrend, dating back to the 126k October high, but failed to push above 76k, the March high and the 23.6% Fib retracement of the 126k high and 60k low.
Buyers, supported by momentum, with the RSI above 50, will look to extend gains above 76k towards 80k, the round number and November low and 85k, the 38.2% Fib retracement.
Immediate support is at 71.5k the falling trendline support. A break below here exposes the 50 SMA and the lower band of the rising channel at 69.5k. A break below 65k, the March low creates a lower low.
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