Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) — H4
Formation of a Potential Wave 3 + Trendline Break (Bearish Continuation)

🔎 Market Structure (H4)

On the H4 timeframe, BTC is forming the technical conditions for the development of a potential Wave 3 to the downside, confirmed by:

a breakout below the corrective trendline (structure shift)
completion of the pullback phase (Wave 2) near local resistance
rejection from the upper boundary of the corrective structure
fading bullish momentum and renewed seller pressure

This setup fits a classic Elliott Wave continuation model, where Wave 3 often begins after price exits a corrective structure and resumes the dominant bearish direction.

📐 Elliott Wave Context

Wave 1: initial impulsive move down (trend initiation)
Wave 2: corrective retracement into resistance / structure top
Wave 3: expected impulsive expansion lower (current scenario)

📌 Key principle:
The bearish scenario remains valid as long as price stays below the high of Wave 2.

📍 Entry

Entry: 77,357.86

The entry is positioned:

below the broken trendline (breakdown confirmation zone)
inside the impulse activation area after the corrective structure failed
aligned with continuation momentum rather than a reversal attempt

🎯 Target Levels (Wave 3 Projections)

Targets are derived from projected impulse expansion zones and key reaction levels:

TP1: 74,925.66
TP2: 72,493.46
TP3: 70,171.81
TP4: 67,913.34

Each target represents a potential reaction zone and a logical level for partial profit-taking during Wave 3 development.

🛑 Invalidation / Stop Loss

Stop Loss: 78,810.86

📍 The stop is placed above the high of Wave 2, which:

invalidates the Wave 3 bearish scenario if breached
signals a possible shift into an alternative bullish structure
follows Elliott Wave risk logic with stop placement beyond the corrective extreme

🧠 Risk & Trade Management

Trend-following setup
Wave 3 can accelerate quickly, so risk control remains essential.

Recommended approach:

partial profits at TP1 / TP2
move stop to breakeven after a clean bearish continuation is confirmed
avoid increasing risk too early — scale only on intrawave pullbacks that respect resistance
confirmation improves if price continues to hold below the broken trendline and prints strong bearish H4 closes

📌 Summary

BTCUSDT on H4 shows a corrective trendline breakdown and signs of Wave 2 completion, supporting the start of a potential Wave 3 to the downside.
The bearish scenario remains valid below 78,810.86, with downside targets at 74,925.66 → 72,493.46 → 70,171.81 → 67,913.34.