- BTC steadies at 76k, a weekly low
- Washington considers further military action against Iran, lifting oil prices
- Rising inflation worries support the Fed’s hawkish hold
- Big tech earnings offer some support to BTC
- US GDP and Core PCE data are in focus
- BTC technical analysis
trades around $76k on Wednesday as escalating tensions between the US and Iran, and a hawkish hold from the Fed, offset support from broadly resilient tech earnings.
The largest cryptocurrency has pulled back from Monday’s high near $79.5K and trades around $76K, a weekly low. While BTC trades 1% lower over the past 24 hours, it remains 11.5% higher for April.
Geopolitical Risks Push Oil Higher
Risk sentiment has weakened amid reports that President Trump is considering additional military options against Iran, underscoring the fragility of the ceasefire and raising the risk of further escalation in the Middle East.
The developments have pushed oil prices sharply higher, with for June delivery rising to around $125 per barrel — a four-year high — amid the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and fears of prolonged constrained supply.
This surge in oil is feeding directly into inflation expectations, lifting treasury yields and reinforcing a challenging macro backdrop for risk assets.
Fed’s Hawkish Hold
The jump in energy prices comes as the Federal Reserve left unchanged, at 3.5%-3.75% but delivered one of its most divided decisions in decades.
Three policymakers dissented, opposing language suggesting future rate cuts, arguing that inflation remains above target and that risks are skewed to the upside.
Markets have responded by pricing out expectations for a rate cut this year, shifting towards a more hawkish outlook — a dynamic that typically weighs on Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets.
Tech Earnings Offer Partial Support
At the same time, strong US tech earnings are providing some support, limiting the downside.
Shares in and are rising pre-market following solid results after the close, while traded broadly flat. In contrast, Meta is falling sharply on concerns over increased AI-related spending. Still, remain modestly higher and close to record levels.
Bitcoin continues to trade closely aligned with tech stocks. The BTC-Nasdaq 30-day correlation coefficient is 0.98, a very strong correlation— highlighting BTC’s sensitivity to macro drivers.
Key Data Ahead
Attention now turns to upcoming US data, including — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — and Q1 GDP figures.
is expected to show solid annualised growth of 2.3%, up from 0.5% in the previous quarter, while core PCE is forecast to rise to 3.2% from 3.0%.
Stronger-than-expected data could reinforce the “higher-for-longer” rate narrative, adding further pressure to risk assets.
BTC Technical Analysis
BTC/USDT trades in an ascending channel dating back to early February, reaching a peak of 79.5k before easing back to 76k. The price holds above the falling trendline dating back to the 126k October high, which, combined with the RSI above 50, keeps buyers optimistic of further gains, although momentum is slowing.
Should momentum pick up, buyers will look to rise above 80k, the round number, and the November low to create a higher high and expose the 200 SMA around 85k, also the 38.2% Fib retracement of the 126k high and 60k low. Above here, buyers could gain traction towards 95k.
Support is seen at 72k, the 50 SMA, and 70k, the confluence of the lower band of the rising channel and the multi-month falling trendline. A break below here brings 65k into focus, the March low.
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