On the weekly timeframe, BTC is still clearly respecting a long-term downtrend structure, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows. The price is currently reacting around a key Fibonacci retracement zone (0.5 – 0.618), which often acts as a strong reversal area in bearish markets.
We can also observe a completed or nearly completed Elliott Wave corrective structure, suggesting that the market may be preparing for a final wave (v) to the downside.
Several major order blocks above current price remain unmitigated, indicating strong supply zones where sellers are likely to step in again.
At this stage, there are two main scenarios:
Bearish Continuation (Primary Scenario):
Price forms a lower high and continues downward, breaking current support to create a new low. This aligns with the overall trend and Elliott Wave projection.
Bull Trap Scenario:
Price pushes higher into resistance zones, creating a fake breakout to trap late buyers before reversing sharply to the downside.