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Home / Analysis / Commodity Analysis / BTC looking downside

BTC looking downside

In the context of Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and ICT methodologies, understanding the hierarchy between an Area of Interest (AOI) and a Strong Order Block (OB) is essential for high-probability sell setups.1. Area of Interest (AOI) for SellingAn AOI is a macro-level “filter” rather than a specific entry point. It represents a broad price zone where you anticipate institutional selling pressure to occur.Definition: A supply zone or a range of price on a higher timeframe (HTF) where the market is likely to reverse.How to Identify:Premium Pricing: Using a Fibonacci tool from a swing high to a swing low, the AOI for selling is always in the Premium Zone (above the 50% level). HTF Supply Zones: Any unmitigated supply zone on the 4H or Daily chart.Liquidity Pools: Areas above old highs (Buy Side Liquidity) where “smart money” might look to trap retail buyers before pushing the price down. 2. Strong Order Block (OB) for SellingWhile the AOI is where you look, the Strong Order Block is the specific price candle you use to execute. In a sell setup, this is a Bearish Order Block. To distinguish a “strong” OB from a weak one (noise), it must meet these three criteria:A. The Displacement (The “Impulse”)A strong OB is the last bullish candle before a rapid, aggressive move downward. If the price drifted away slowly, the OB is likely weak. Look for: Large bearish candles (MARUBOZU). Fair Value Gaps (FVG) left immediately after the OB. This proves institutions were “too fast” for the market to fill all orders. B. Market Structure Shift (MSS/BOS)A strong OB must have a job. Its “job” was to break the previous market structure. It should lead to a Break of Structure (BOS) or a Change of Character (CHoCH). If the OB didn’t break a previous low, it didn’t have enough institutional power behind it.C. Unmitigated StatusA “strong” OB is one that price has not yet touched since it was created. Once the price returns and “taps” the zone, the pending institutional orders are filled (mitigated). The first return to an unmitigated OB is your highest probability entry.

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