Crude oil is under pressure, trading down $3.80 (-3.57%) at $102.62, after a volatile session that saw a high of $105.48 and a low of $101.08.
From a technical perspective, the price has fallen back below the 100-hour moving average at $104.60, shifting near-term control back toward sellers. However, the decline found support just ahead of the rising 200-hour moving average at $100.83, a level that is now acting as a key line in the sand.
These two moving averages are defining the current battle:
- Below the 100-hour MA: Sellers have the edge after today’s breakdown.
- Near the 200-hour MA: Buyers are attempting to lean and hold support.
If the price breaks and holds below the 200-hour moving average, the downside bias strengthens, opening the door for a move toward $98.72 (38.2% retracement of the April rally), followed by the 50% midpoint at $94.95.
On the flip side, if buyers can defend the 200-hour MA and reclaim the 100-hour MA, it would shift the bias back higher, with traders targeting the Monday high near $107.46.
Bottom line:
The market is caught between key moving averages. The 200-hour MA is the key support, while the 100-hour MA is the resistance pivot. The next break—either below support or back above resistance—will likely dictate the next directional move.
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