TSLA — Long Algo Trade Plan | Thu 5/28/26 close, 16:21 PT | 15m
Setup: TTR system flipped BUY at the close (~441) off the late-day dip into channel midline. The ascending channel from the 5/20 low at 407 is intact through today’s print. Multi-day structure says continuation; intraday flow earlier confirmed accumulation (+$3.7M net ask-side calls).
The gate (same level all week from three methods):
– 452.5 = prior 5/13 swing high + ChartPrime future-price tag + ~67% touch probability per option-implied move to Fri close
– Break and hold above 452.5 opens channel top ~456-460
Long plan:
– Entry: TTR BUY confirmed at 441 (current); add on retest of 440 with hold
– Stop: 437.0 (below today’s algo BUY zone + channel midline support) — risk ~$4/share
– T1: 446 (intraday supply, half off, lock breakeven)
– T2: 452.5 (the gate / 2R+) — primary objective
– T3 (runner): 456-460 if 452.5 breaks with volume
Invalidation:
– 15m close below 437 = channel midline lost, setup voids, back to 432 / orange box top
– Loss of orange box top (~438) intraday on volume = exit, no scaling
Options structure (price-time confluence):
– Highest probability: 6/05 450C (8 DTE, IV 47% vs 5/29’s 54% — avoids Friday IV trap, survives a miss into next week’s momentum)
– Defined-risk Friday play: 5/29 445/450 call spread — sell the 450 OI wall (20K contracts, the magnet+ceiling) against 445 long; turns the wall into your premium
– Avoid: naked 5/29 450C. 33% close probability vs 54% IV = negative EV
Conviction: Channel intact + algo BUY + 67% touch probability on 452.5 + accumulation flow = constructive long. Trade the level, not the story. Above 452.5 with volume = the run extends; rejection = reset to 437 and reassess.
Not financial advice. Process over prediction. Risk-first, always.