Hello everyone,
Gold continues to trade under pressure around 4,448 USD/oz after failing to reclaim the 4,480–4,500 region. On the H4 timeframe, price remains below both EMAs, suggesting that sellers still maintain control of the short-term structure.
What catches my attention is that every rebound toward 4,500–4,520 has been rejected fairly quickly. This indicates that buying interest remains limited, while the 4,440–4,425 area is becoming a critical zone where short-term demand is being tested.
The main source of pressure now comes from upcoming US labor-market data, including Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings. If employment data remains strong, expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates may increase, creating additional headwinds for gold. Forex Factory currently highlights the June 5 NFP release as the key USD event.
Reuters also reported that gold is heading toward a weekly decline as interest-rate concerns and Middle East tensions keep investors cautious. Spot gold was recently quoted near 4,462 USD/oz during the June 5 session.
What comes next?
- Scenario 1: If gold holds the 4,440–4,425 support zone, I expect a rebound toward 4,480–4,500. A successful move above 4,500 could open the path toward 4,520–4,560.
- Scenario 2: If an H4 candle closes below 4,425, selling pressure may accelerate toward 4,400, followed by 4,375–4,360.
Overall, I favor a period of consolidation around 4,440–4,425 before a clearer recovery attempt develops. For buyers to regain control, gold needs a convincing H4 close back above 4,500.