Right now, price is sitting right around 4,334.01, consolidating just underneath a crucial Daily Key Level at 4,339.49. The market has just formed a lower high—marked by the “Fail to make a HH” callout—which tells us the immediate bullish momentum is starting to tire out.
Looking at the structure, we have two primary scenarios mapped out based on how price reacts to this immediate area:
Scenario 1: The Bearish Retest (The Green Path)
This seems to be the primary focus given the current consolidation.
The Condition: If gold fails to break out and holds below the 4344–4335 resistance zone, it’s going to head lower.
The Target: Sellers will likely target the Internal Liquidity ($$$) sitting just below the 4,315 level.
The Point of Interest: Once that liquidity is swept, we expect price to plunge directly into the major DEMAND zone resting right around the 4,300 psychological level (supported by another Daily Key Level at 4,304.69). If it hits this pocket, we’re looking for a sharp technical bounce back to the upside.
Scenario 2: The Bullish Breakout (The Red Path)
If the market finds sudden buying volume, we watch the upper supply barriers.
The Condition: Price would need to push through the immediate minor SUPPLY block at 4,345.
The Target: A clean break there carries it up into the Premium Zone Sell-zone (4352–4367).
The Play: The note reminds us to look for shorts there unless it breaks through that entire premium supply with an aggressive, engulfing candle. If it breaks it cleanly, the script flips and we start hunting for buys on the retest.
Key takeaway right now: We are in a wait-and-see pocket just below a daily level. We either wait for a rejection to play the drop into the 4,300 demand zone, or wait for a decisive push above 4,345 to target the premium shorting space.