A company that hasn’t traded a single share yet is about to be worth more than the entire American aerospace industry.
Think about that for a minute.
Not just more than Boeing (BA). More than Boeing, GE Aerospace, and every other aerospace and defense company in the S&P 500 put together.
That is what SpaceX is set to command when it goes public Friday at a $1.75 trillion valuation, the largest IPO in history.
So first, I’ll be straight with you about what I think… and then I’ll tell you why it doesn’t even matter.
What I think is that this makes no sense.
At $1.75 trillion, you’re paying something like 95 times sales for a company that lost almost $5 billion last year.
The Starlink business is real and actually profitable, $3.3 billion in revenue last quarter, so this isn’t a company with nothing under the hood.
But real business and rational price are two different things, and at this number I expect a sell-the-news event. I think a lot of the overhyped space names get dragged down with it.
Here’s the part that matters more than any of that. I am not going to trade my opinion.
I have learned this the hard way over a lot of years.
The more married I get to an opinion, the more it costs me. The market doesn’t care what I think a company is worth.
So I have a rule, and the SpaceX IPO is going to make me follow it whether I like it or not.
As an options trader, I am forced to sit on my hands here.
The options will not open on day one.
I couldn’t rush in even if I wanted to. And honestly, that’s an advantage.
While everyone else is swinging at the open on emotion, I get to stand back and watch what the stock actually does.
Does it pop and fade? Does it hold? Where do the buyers show up, and where do they run?
That first move is not a verdict. It’s price discovery, the market arguing with itself in real time.
A stock with a price this stretched and a float this thin can go violent in either direction, and the people who guess the open are usually the ones who get hurt.
YOUR ACTION PLAN
My plan is simple. Let the dust settle. Let the options open. Let the chart show me something real instead of something I want to see.
Then I trade it, with a plan, on the side the chart actually supports, not the side my opinion wants.
That’s the whole game with an event like this. Not being right about the valuation… being patient enough to wait for the trade instead of forcing one.
When the options open and the setups are real, I’ll be working them live.