- BTC falls 3% to 65k
- Federal Reserve rate decision at 18:00, the first under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
- Rates are expected to remain at 3.5%-3.75%, and the easing bias could be removed
- Warsh was picked by Trump to cut rates; the Committee is talking about hikes
- BTC ETFs and LTH conviction could mean the bottom of the bear market is near
- BTC technical analysis
is edging lower towards 65k ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at 18:00 GMT.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency is down around 3% over the past 24 hours as its recovery from the 2026 low of 59k runs out of steam after hitting resistance near 67k. Market sentiment is turning cautious ahead of the June FOMC meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh.
What to Expect From the Fed Meeting?
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. However, policymakers could remove the easing bias from the statement, given that inflation remains stubbornly high.
The meeting comes against an improving macro backdrop. have fallen to a three-month low following tentative progress towards a U.S.-Iran peace agreement, helping to ease inflation concerns. However, remains elevated at 4.2%, while the U.S. labour market remains solid.
As a result, investors will focus on updated economic projections, the dot plot (reports are circulating that this may be removed), and comments from Chair Kevin Warsh for clues over the future path of monetary policy.
Markets currently view the next Fed move as a rather than a rate cut. Investors will be watching closely to see whether Warsh challenges those expectations or adopts a similarly hawkish tone.
The new Fed Chair faces a delicate balancing act. President Trump picked Warsh as Fed Chair to cut rates. However, inflation remains well above target, the labour market is solid, and the FOMC is talking about hikes. This puts Warsh in an awkward position. A dovish shift could undermine the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility, not to mention Warsh’s, while a hawkish stance could irk Trump and pressure risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Institutional and LTH Demand Improve
Beyond the Fed, there are tentative signs that institutional demand may be stabilising. According to SoSoValue data, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $10.1 million on Tuesday, suggesting selling pressure may be easing after several weeks of heavy outflows.
On-chain data is also starting to look more constructive. K33 data shows that 79% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held by long-term holders, a record high. The exceptionally low level of reactivation for BTC aged 2+ years suggests conviction remains strong among this cohort despite recent price weakness and could indicate that selling pressure is increasingly concentrated among shorter-term holders.
While macroeconomic risks remain elevated, improving ETF flows and record circulating supply in the hands of LTH suggest the end of the bear market could be near.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Bitcoin recovered from the 59.1K 2026 low but ran into resistance at the 20 SMA, cutting short the recovery and reinforcing the bearish outlook with BTC trading below its 20, 50, and 200 SMA. The RSI is also pointing lower.
The price is testing immediate support at 65k. A break below here opens the door once again to 60k. A break below here creates a lower low.
Buyers would need to rise above the 20 SMA and above 67K to create a higher high and turn attention to the 50 SMA at 73.4K. Above here, the lower band of the ascending channel, which was broken down, comes into focus at 75K, ahead of the key 200 SMA at 77.5K.
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