BTCUSDT is recovering around $63,500, but the H4 structure is still not strong enough to call a reversal. Price remains below the EMA cluster around $64,050–64,970, while the latest rebound is losing momentum as it approaches this resistance area. Current market data also shows Bitcoin around $63,509, still moving near a sensitive zone after the previous sharp decline.
The key point is that this rebound came after BTC was heavily sold from above $74,000 down toward $59,000–60,000. The current bounce has some strength, but it has not reclaimed the important control zone. To me, this looks more like a resistance retest than the start of a new uptrend.
Main scenario: BTC may extend slightly higher toward $64,000–65,000, where the EMA cluster and short-term supply zone are located. If rejection candles appear there or buying pressure weakens, price could turn lower again toward $62,300, then deeper into the $60,800–60,000 region to retest the recent low.
Current news also does not strongly support a major breakout. Reuters noted that Bitcoin around the $63,000 area has lost roughly one-third of its value in 2026, as capital has shifted toward AI names and major IPO deals. This suggests crypto sentiment has not truly heated up again.
Although BTC previously rebounded on ETF inflows and easing geopolitical expectations, CoinDesk reported that the move above $64,000 was mainly driven by the strongest ETF inflows in a month and short-term optimism. If these flows do not continue, the $64,000–65,000 area could easily become a zone where sellers return.
In addition, the US Dollar remains supported after the Fed kept rates unchanged but signaled the possibility of another rate hike this year. A strong Dollar and elevated yields are usually not an easy environment for risk assets such as Bitcoin.