The core bearish pressure on gold prices stems from the Federal Reserveās June policy meeting. The Fed held interest rates steady at elevated levels this time, while the dot plot showed half of policymakers back one additional rate hike in 2026. Markets have fully priced out rate cut expectations for the entire year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has stayed elevated alongside a stronger U.S. Dollar Index, directly capping goldās rebound momentum.
On the geopolitical front, de-escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions has triggered continuous outflows of safe-haven capital. Safe-haven buying that previously underpinned gold has dried up substantially, further weakening bullish sentiment. Gold currently has two key support drivers: first, technical corrective rebound demand following consecutive sharp declines, with physical gold buyers and short-term dip buyers stepping in at lower price levels; second, persistent annual gold purchases by central banks worldwide. The 4000 level carries strong psychological and production-cost support, which is unlikely to break without exceptionally strong U.S. economic data prints. Multiple U.S. economic indicators are due for release next Monday. A broadly robust data set will reinforce the Fedās higher-for-longer rates outlook and even renewed rate hike bets, lifting the dollar and Treasury yields and weighing gold further lower. Conversely, widespread data misses versus market forecasts will trigger a short-term pullback in the dollar and yields, sparking a sharp oversold technical bounce in gold.
Immediate resistance lies between 4180 and 4200. Short selling pressure will surge if gold edges up to this zone on Monday, as the bearish market backdrop rules out a clean breakout on the first attempt. The secondary critical resistance marking the bull-bear divide sits at 4250; gold has repeatedly stalled and reversed lower on rallies to this level, and only a decisive break above this mark will unlock extended upside recovery space. Near-term defensive support ranges from 4120 to 4100. Monitor this zone immediately at Mondayās open; a breakdown here will unleash further downside momentum for bears. The medium-term major solid support zone is 4040ā4000, the primary accumulation zone for bargain hunters amid the current downtrend.
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