Gold has bounced from the $4,100 area, but the recovery is still not convincing enough to change the broader picture. On the H4 chart, price remains below the major EMA cluster around $4,248–4,314, suggesting that sellers continue to control the upper boundary of the market.
My preferred scenario is for XAUUSD to extend its recovery toward the $4,240–4,250 resistance zone before facing renewed selling pressure. If buyers fail to gain traction there, gold could revisit $4,150 and potentially extend lower toward $4,100–4,080.
What makes this setup interesting is that the market is recovering while still trapped beneath a key resistance area. This is often where traders confuse a genuine reversal with a simple retest before another decline. Until gold can secure a clear H4 close above $4,250, the current bounce remains a corrective move rather than a confirmed trend change.
Fundamentally, the backdrop remains mixed. Reuters reported that gold rebounded more than 1% from a one-week low as Brent crude eased following signs of progress in US-Iran negotiations, reducing some inflation concerns. However, the US Dollar remains supported, while Treasury yields continue to reflect expectations of a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve.
This week’s calendar includes several high-impact releases such as US Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI, New Home Sales, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials. FXStreet also highlighted upcoming US PCE inflation data as a major catalyst that could influence rate expectations and gold prices.
In summary, gold is recovering, but the H4 trend still leans bearish. The ideal scenario remains a rally toward $4,240–4,250 followed by rejection and a move back toward $4,150 and potentially $4,100–4,080. Buyers have shown up, but they need far more than a short-term bounce beneath resistance to regain control.