Price has broken down from the order block that had been holding this recovery together, and that shift matters. After rejecting the 4,380 highs, the market printed a clear change of character, then confirmed it with a break of structure through 4,210. Since then, price has been moving inside a descending channel, and the latest leg lower has pushed through the 4,170–4,250 area that previously acted as support. That zone is now the level to watch, because how price behaves around it will say a lot about what comes next.
I’m leaning bearish below 4,220. The order block sits just above current price, and with the channel still intact, any retracement into that zone looks more likely to attract selling than buying. Momentum has been building steadily to the downside rather than spiking, which tends to reflect controlled distribution rather than panic, and that keeps me cautious about calling a bottom too early.
If the current structure holds, the next area of real interest is 4,060–4,100, where the original accumulation formed earlier this month. That range previously absorbed selling pressure before the move higher began, so it’s the first place I’d expect demand to reappear, not before.
Invalidation here is specific. A close back above 4,220, paired with a break of the channel’s descending trendline, would tell me sellers have lost control and the bias needs to flip. Until that happens, I’m treating every bounce into the order block as a high-probability area to reassess downside continuation rather than a reason to turn bullish.