XAUUSD: Main Trend Still Bearish, Waiting for Confirmation Around 4,008
Market Context
Gold remains under strong bearish pressure after continuing to trade inside a clear downward structure. The latest price action shows that sellers are still controlling the market, while buyers are only trying to build a corrective rebound from the lower liquidity area.
At the moment, the key question is not whether gold has reversed, but whether price can hold above the 4,008 trendline area long enough to create a valid recovery. Without confirmation, any bounce should still be treated as corrective.
Technical Structure
Gold is currently trading around 3,989 after reacting from the strong liquidity zone near 3,964. The main trend remains deeply bearish, supported by the descending trendline and multiple BOS signals on the chart.
The 3,964 area is the major downside level to watch. If price breaks below this zone with strength, bearish continuation may open toward lower liquidity levels.
However, if gold holds above the 4,008 trendline area and forms bullish confirmation, a corrective rebound can happen first. The nearest upside reaction zone is 4,036, followed by the next target around 4,083.
The key sell area above remains the OB zone around 4,180 – 4,200. If price recovers into this zone and rejects, sellers may return again for the next bearish leg.
Key Levels
Current Price: 3,989
Strong Liquidity Support: 3,964
Trendline Confirmation Area: 4,008
Buy-side Liquidity / Sell Order Zone: 4,036
Corrective Rebound Target: 4,083
Major Sell Swing OB Zone: 4,180 – 4,200
Bearish Continuation Level: Below 3,964
Trading Plan
Buy Scenario: Corrective Rebound
Entry: Above 4,008 after bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 3,964
Take Profit 1: 4,036
Take Profit 2: 4,083
Take Profit 3: 4,120
Conditions:
Price must hold above the 4,008 trendline area
Bullish rejection or CHOCH appears on lower timeframe
Price reclaims 4,018 with strength
Buyers defend the 3,964 liquidity zone
Avoid buying if price breaks below 3,964
Sell Scenario: Trend Continuation
Entry: Below 3,964 after confirmed breakdown and retest
Stop Loss: Above 4,008
Take Profit 1: 3,940
Take Profit 2: 3,920
Take Profit 3: 3,900
Conditions:
Price breaks below the 3,964 strong liquidity zone
Retest of the broken level fails
Bearish momentum continues after breakdown
Price remains below the descending trendline
Sellers continue to create lower highs
Alternative Sell Scenario: Sell From OB Zone
Entry: 4,180 – 4,200 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,220
Take Profit 1: 4,083
Take Profit 2: 4,036
Take Profit 3: 3,964
Conditions:
Price recovers into the OB sell zone
Strong bearish rejection appears
Price fails to hold above the OB zone
Market structure remains bearish
Overall Bias
The main trend is still bearish. Gold is only attempting a corrective rebound from the lower liquidity area, but the recovery needs confirmation above the 4,008 trendline.
If price holds above 4,008, a short-term rebound toward 4,036 and 4,083 may appear. If price breaks below 3,964, bearish continuation becomes the priority again.
For now, the best approach is to wait for confirmation around 4,008 and 3,964 instead of chasing price in the middle.
What do you think — will gold hold above 4,008 for a corrective rebound, or break below 3,964 and continue the main bearish trend?