Brent & WTI prices remained under sustained selling pressure throughout the past week as market concerns over potential supply disruptions from the Middle East continued to ease. Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have remained largely uninterrupted, leading to a gradual decline in the geopolitical risk premium that had built up during tensions involving the United States, Iran, and Israel. Although isolated military incidents continue to occur, the market generally believes that global oil supply has not been materially disrupted.
At the same time, investors remain focused on OPEC+ policy and the outlook for global oil demand. Recent economic data from several major economies have pointed to slowing growth, raising concerns that weaker demand could continue to weigh on crude oil prices in the near term.
This week, the market will closely monitor the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories report, along with key U.S. economic releases, particularly Nonfarm Payrolls, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the direction of the U.S. dollar. A larger-than-expected draw in crude inventories or renewed geopolitical tensions could provide support for oil prices. However, if economic data continue to indicate weak demand while geopolitical risks remain subdued, crude oil prices are likely to continue trading in a sideways to sideways-down pattern in the short term.
Brent (UKOIL)
Technical Analysis
Brent crude has also rebounded from a major support area following renewed short-term buying interest. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from lower levels, while the MACD is beginning to generate a bullish crossover signal.
Despite the short-term recovery, the broader trend remains bearish, as price continues to trade below the primary downtrend line and has yet to overcome the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement resistance.
Primary Scenario
If Brent breaks above 77.53, it could extend its recovery toward the 79.07–81.04 resistance zone, where selling pressure is expected to strengthen.
However, if price fails to overcome this resistance, profit-taking could push Brent back toward the 72.92 support level. A break below 72.92 would expose the market to further downside toward 71.84.
Risks
Key market drivers remain the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, upcoming OPEC+ developments, and U.S. crude oil inventory data. Any event affecting global oil supply could trigger sharp price swings. Conversely, if supply conditions remain stable and geopolitical tensions continue to ease, crude oil prices may remain under selling pressure.
Key Levels
Resistance
77.53
79.07
81.04
Support
72.92
71.84
70.40
WTI (USOIL)
Technical Analysis
WTI crude has started to attract buying interest after testing its recent swing-low support area. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from lower levels, while the MACD has crossed above its Signal line, indicating improving short-term bullish momentum.
However, the broader market structure remains bearish, as price continues to trade below the primary downtrend line and has yet to reclaim the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone.
Primary Scenario
If WTI breaks above 73.21, it could extend its recovery toward the 74.33–75.93 resistance zone, where significant selling pressure is expected to re-emerge.
However, failure to break through this resistance could trigger renewed profit-taking, pushing prices back toward the 69.29 support level. A decisive break below 69.29 would increase the likelihood of a further decline toward 68.44.
Risks
Oil prices are expected to remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, the U.S. crude oil inventory report, and the global supply-demand outlook. Any escalation in geopolitical tensions could quickly lift prices, while easing risks and sufficient global supply may encourage renewed selling pressure.
Key Levels
Resistance
73.21
74.33
75.93
Support
69.29
68.44
67.51