According to the latest CFTC COT report published on June 26, 2026, large speculators (Hedge Funds) have slightly reduced their long positions in the Euro to 30.2K (30,200) net-long contracts, down from 34.4K in the previous week. Due to this reduction in institutional positions, the EURUSD pair may see a temporary bearish or consolidation (falling) trend in the upcoming trading week of June 29 to July 03, 2026. Below is a specific and actionable trade plan based on this data:
1. Market Sentiment Analysis (COT Insight) Large Speculators: Net-long position decreased to 30.2K contracts. This means that smart money is reducing their buying pressure on the Euro (Long Liquidation). Clue: This retreat of institutional buyers indicates that the strength of the dollar may temporarily return to the market and the upward trend in EURUSD is weakening.
Since the market has already moved below 1.1390, there are two specific ways to enter the short position:
Strategy 1: Aggressive Sell Action:
Open a direct sell position near the current price of 1.13850. Stop Loss (SL): 1.14450 (just above the 1.1420 resistance level, total risk of 60 pips). Take Profit 1 (TP 1): 1.13200 (65 pips profit). Take Profit 2 (TP 2): 1.12600 (125 pips profit).
Strategy 2: Pullback Entry (Conservative Sell – best risk-reward)
Action: If the market retests or pulls back to the 1.13950 – 1.14100 zone, then sell from there. Stop Loss (SL): 1.14450 (only 35-50 pips Risk). Take Profit (TP): 1.13200 and 1.12600.
Risk and Trade Management Tips Break-Even Rule: If the price drops 50 pips in your favor to 1.13350, then move your stop loss to the entry price (1.13850). This will make your trade completely risk-free. Lot Size Warning: Even if the COT data is bearish, volatility can increase at any time in the live market due to news. So, do not risk more than 1% to 2% of your account on each trade.