Summary
In a week shortened by the July 4th holiday (observed by U.S. stock markets on Friday, July 3), the big news for the week will be the employment report that comes out on Thursday. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%, while the S&P 500 fell 1.9%, and the Nasdaq fell 4.6%. Year to date, all three indices are in positive territory, with the DJIA up almost 8%, the S&P 500 up 7.4%, and the Nasdaq up almost 9%. The earnings calendar is quiet, with earnings season not starting until mid-July. Still, there are a few reports of interest this week, including Nike and Constellation Brands on Tuesday. Turning to economic data, gas prices dropped 15 cents last week and are now at an average of $3.91 per gallon for regular gas. Elsewhere, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is for GDP growth of 2.5% in 2Q, down from the last reading of 3.0%. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast calls for CPI of 3.96% in June. Mortgage rates rose two basis points last week, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now at 6.49%, according to FreddieMac. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is on Wednesday, July 29, and odds are essentially at 0% for a rate cut at that meeting, with increasing speculation that the Fed may instead end up increasing rates at some point in 2026. Taking a deeper dive into performance so far in 2026, a leading industrialized global stock market index, the ETF EFA, is up 6.3% year to date, while the leading emerg