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Home / Analysis / Forex Analysis / Bullish Bias Above 4,040 – Eyes on the 4,150–4,170 FVG Retest

Bullish Bias Above 4,040 – Eyes on the 4,150–4,170 FVG Retest

Bullish Bias Above 4,040 – Eyes on the 4,150–4,170 FVG Retest

Structure has clearly shifted from distribution to accumulation. The earlier decline swept liquidity below 3,964, and from there price began printing a disciplined sequence of higher lows. That shift was confirmed by a break of structure near 4,060, followed by a strong impulsive leg that pushed price into the 4,170 region. The speed of that move left an imbalance behind, a fair value gap sitting between 4,148 and 4,170, and price is now returning to fill part of it.

What stands out here is the quality of the pullback. Rather than collapsing back through prior structure, price is compressing just above the 0.382 to 0.5 retracement of the impulse leg, holding well above the order block that sits near 4,040. This kind of controlled retracement, with tightening range and no aggressive rejection, usually reflects absorption rather than distribution. As long as that order block remains untouched, I’m leaning bullish on this retracement rather than treating it as a reversal.

The likely scenario from here is a shallow continuation of the retest, ideally extending toward the 0.618 level near 4,140, before buyers step back in. If that holds, the next objective is a move toward 4,222, which aligns with the prior high on the left side of the chart and represents the next area of unmitigated liquidity above current price.

The structure remains intact unless price closes back below the 4,040 order block on a decisive move. That would remove the higher-low foundation this leg is built on and reopen the 3,964 liquidity pool as the next magnet. Until that level is broken, this reads as healthy continuation within an established bullish leg, not the early signs of exhaustion.

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