Market Structure
The overall trend is bearish.
Price has been making Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) consistently.
The strong bearish impulse from around 1.1610 to 1.1320 confirms sellers remain in control.
The recent bounce from 1.1320 appears to be a corrective move rather than a trend reversal.
Current Situation
I can see:
Price is sitting around 1.1433.
It has broken above the small ascending trendline but is still trading below the previous major lower high.
The bounce has reached an important resistance zone around 1.1440–1.1480.
This area is critical.
Bullish Scenario
The bulls need to:
Close a strong 4H candle above 1.1480.
Then break 1.1560.
Finally invalidate the last Lower High around 1.1610.
Only then would I start considering a medium-term bullish reversal.
Potential upside targets:
1.1480
1.1560
1.1610
Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability)
As long as price remains below 1.1480–1.1560, I still favor selling rallies.
If sellers regain control, targets become:
1.1400
1.1360
1.1320 (recent low)
Below 1.1320, the next extension could reach 1.1270–1.1240.
Trade Idea
Sell Zone: 1.1450–1.1480
Stop Loss: Above 1.1515–1.1530 (depending on your risk tolerance)
Take Profit:
TP1: 1.1400
TP2: 1.1360
TP3: 1.1320
Risk-to-reward is attractive if price rejects this resistance.
Probability (current chart):
📉 Bearish continuation: 70%
📈 Bullish reversal: 30%