Summary
This is a generally quiet week. Earnings season kicks off next week (though there are a few headliners this week), while the release of the minutes of the Fed’s last meeting highlight the current economic calendar. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq all rose 1%. Year to date, all three indices are in positive territory, with the DJIA up 10%, the S&P 9%, and the Nasdaq 11%. The earnings calendar is in quiet-before-the-storm mode. Still, there are some noteworthy names this week, including PepsiCo on Thursday and Delta Air Lines on Friday. The big banks kick things off in earnest on July 14. The economic calendar is also light. The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday, providing the first real view of the goings-on under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. Turning to economic data, gas prices continue to drop from the war-induced spike. The average price for a gallon of regular gas is now $3.83, down eight cents week over week. Elsewhere, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast calls for 2Q GDP growth of 1.2%, compared to 3.0% back in mid-June. The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast calls for a CPI reading of 3.9% for June and 3.5% in July. Mortgage rates slid six basis points last week, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now at 6.43%, according to FreddieMac. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is on July 29, with odds now at 18% for a rate hike at that meeting, this after the weaker-than-expected June jobs report Taking a deeper dive into performance so far in 2026, a leading industrialized global stock market index, the ETF EFA, is up 8% year to date, while the leading emerging market ETF (EEM) is up 19%. U.S. growth stocks are up 1% looking at ETF IWF, while value stocks (IWD) are up 16%. Crude oil prices continue to be volatile. On Friday, oil was down to $84 per barrel, b