After spending the last week out West, my bullishness on Boot Barn (BOOT) remains as strong as ever.
Western gear is the hottest trend in all of retail, and the most dominant leader in the $58 billion Western fashion sector is BOOT.
The so-called lifestyle retail chain offers denim, western shirts, cowboy hats, belts and belt buckles, rugged footwear, outerwear, overalls, shirts, safety-toe boots, hats, flame-resistant and high-visibility clothing, and western-style jewelry, accessories, and home merchandise.
You’ll probably recognize many of the popular brands, such as Ariat, Durango, Levi’s, Stetson, Wrangler, Carhartt, Georgia Boot, Timberland Pro, Wolverine, and El Dorado.
Most people would channel this hype into visions of summer creek parties and kicking up dust down a country backroad. But for me, it’s an investment play, and the numbers are what get me excited…
Boot Barn enjoys 20% earnings per share growth, which should serve investors well as they scale from 539 stores to their goal of 1,200 stores in the next 2-3 years.
Based on this EPS multiple, combined with their growth, TD Cowen just issued them a price target of $225, which is just under 30% higher than current levels.
The stock has been setting a series of higher-lows since April, which indicates to me that shares could soon re-visit their February highs around $200.
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The proof isn’t just in the store count or price target. I saw it walking through Chicago last week. Western wear on every block, worn by people who’ve never set foot on a ranch or swam in a stream. I had to ask myself, “why are city folk wearing cowboy boots around town?”
Turns out, there was a Morgan Wallen concert at Soldier Field, but casual cowboy isn’t just a regional look anymore. Western gear is getting popular across the country, and BOOT is the name built to own it nationally.
But the bigger question is which sector makes this kind of move next, and that’s exactly what Nate Bear is tracking.
He watches for this kind of rotation like a hawk, and his strategy around it has produced a win rate over 85% so far in 2026.
Tune in this afternoon to hear where he sees the money rotating.