Gold has found temporary support after last week’s decline, but buyers are already approaching a critical decision area. Price is rebounding directly into a descending trendline while attempting to reclaim a demand zone that has been tested multiple times.
Every revisit to the same demand area tends to absorb resting buy orders. Unless buyers regain control quickly, this recovery could become nothing more than a pullback before another move lower.
đź“Š Trade Plan
đź”» Entry: 4,031.00
🛑 Stop Loss: 4,068.00
🎯 Take Profit 1: 3,994.00
🎯 Take Profit 2: 3,965.00
Why this level matters
The descending trendline has capped every recovery since the latest swing high, preserving the sequence of lower highs. At the same time, price is struggling around a demand zone that has already been tested on several occasions.
This combination creates a classic decision point. Either buyers finally reclaim the trendline and shift short-term momentum, or the latest bounce is rejected and the market resumes its broader bearish structure.
Another important observation is the quality of the rebound itself. The recovery lacks the urgency typically associated with strong trend reversals, suggesting buyers remain cautious while sellers continue defending higher prices.
Market Context
Gold remains trapped between two opposing macro forces.
Safe-haven demand continues to offer underlying support, but a stronger US dollar and uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve decision have prevented buyers from building sustained momentum. Markets are largely waiting for fresh guidance from the Fed, leaving technical levels to dominate short-term price action.
With spot gold continuing to trade around the psychologically important $4,000 region, a decisive move away from this range could attract fresh momentum in either direction.
Trading Scenarios
đź”» Bearish (preferred)
A rejection beneath the descending trendline followed by a break below the current demand zone would expose 3,994 as the first downside objective. If selling pressure accelerates, the next demand zone around 3,965 becomes the next logical target.
🟢 Alternative
If buyers reclaim the demand zone and achieve a decisive close above the descending trendline, the current bearish structure would be invalidated and the market could extend the recovery toward the previous swing highs.
Risk Management
This setup is based on confirmation rather than prediction.
I would only favour the bearish scenario while price remains below the descending trendline. A sustained close above 4,068 would invalidate the setup and suggest that buyers have regained short-term control.