Natural Gas coils under SMA 200. What’s next?
Natural Gas is trading near $2.77, stuck inside a tightening range after recovering from the $2.68 support area.
The interesting part is that price is not falling anymore, but it is also not strong enough to break higher. Buyers keep defending dips, while sellers continue to appear near $2.80–2.82, where the SMA 200 and the upper side of the pattern are located.
The macro picture explains this compression.
Hot US weather supports short-term demand because higher temperatures increase power burn for cooling. Recent storage data also helped sentiment: the latest EIA build was smaller than expected, showing that demand is absorbing more supply than traders feared.
But the upside is still capped. Inventories remain above the five-year average, and high US production keeps the market comfortable.
This creates a simple setup: weather supports the market, but supply limits the breakout.
Technically, Natural Gas is trading around the EMA 9, EMA 20 and SMA 50, which confirms indecision. The real battle is near $2.80–2.82, where the SMA 200 and the upper side of the pattern are located.
If buyers reclaim this zone, the recovery can continue. If sellers defend it again, the market may stay under pressure.
Scenarios
🟢 Bullish scenario:
A clean H1 close above $2.82 would weaken bearish pressure and could open the way toward $2.90, then $2.98.
🔴 Bearish scenario:
A break below $2.72 would show that buyers are losing control. In this case, Natural Gas could retest $2.68.
⚪ Neutral scenario:
While price stays between $2.72 and $2.82, Natural Gas remains compressed with no confirmed direction.
For now, the key question is simple: $2.82 breakout or $2.72 breakdown?
⚠️ Not financial advice.