Anthropic (ANTH.PVT) isn’t even public yet, and people are already predicting it will beat out Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX) for the largest IPO of the year.
Prediction market odds show Anthropic quickly closing the gap with SpaceX for the largest IPO of 2026 as its revenue growth accelerates into a potential fourth quarter market debut, according to Polymarket data. Bloomberg reported late Monday that Anthropic’s annualized revenue for 2026 is on track to top $65 billion, up from a $47 billion pace in May.
OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) — Anthropic’s archrival that could also make a market debut later this year — isn’t showing up in Polymarket’s data as a contender for the largest IPO of 2026.
For now, though, SpaceX holds the crown.
The company officially priced its stock at $135 on June 11, offering 555.6 million shares. The pricing valued SpaceX at $1.78 trillion.
SpaceX made its historic public debut on the Nasdaq on June 12, when the stock officially opened for trading around midday at $150 per share.
Driven by heavy demand from both institutional and retail investors, the stock steadily climbed throughout the session before closing its first day at $160.95.
This successful 19.2% gain from its initial offering price instantly catapulted SpaceX to a massive $2.1 trillion market capitalization.
Shares went on to peak around $225 a few weeks later, only to hit lows around $104 as investors fretted about lockup expirations and capital expenditure plans.
“In the end, betting against Elon Musk has been a fool’s errand time and time again, and I think that’s probably true this time,” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid. “So yes, I am a long-term bull on SpaceX. However, you better buckle up for some interim volatility, because we know this name is going to be wild.”
SpaceX has since rallied back to $146 a share, giving the company a market cap of $1.93 trillion. Anthropic is currently valued at about $1 trillion compared to $894 billion for OpenAI, according to Yahoo Finance private markets data.
Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance’s Executive Editor, host of the Power Players with Brian Sozzi podcast, and a member of Yahoo Finance’s editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.
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