The August 17 analysis identified a potential new impulsive advance in Gold, with $4,698.740 marked as the first major upside objective. Since then, price has followed the bullish structure closely enough for that target to become a completed milestone.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/yowvQhBm-GOLD-XAUUSD-A-New-Impulse-Could-Be-Underway/
The question now is no longer whether Gold can reach that level — it has. The focus shifts to what develops after the first impulsive leg.
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What Played Out
The previous analysis called for a bullish impulse to develop from the August low, with the initial upside objective at $4,698.740.
That scenario has now been validated as price advanced toward the projected target area.
More importantly, the latest chart continues to preserve the broader bullish wave structure rather than showing a confirmed invalidation of the original count.
The market has therefore transitioned from the initial upside target into the next structural phase.
Current Structure
The latest 4H chart shows Gold approaching the $4,698.740 area after a strong advance from the August low.
The current structure is labeled as an impulsive advance, with the chart projecting a wave iv correction before another upside leg.
Two levels stand out on the corrective path:
– $4,511.877
– $4,399.854
These areas represent the main support zones shown on the current chart.
The correction does not necessarily imply that the broader bullish structure has failed. Instead, it would represent a potential reset before the next impulsive move.
What Happens Next
The primary roadmap is relatively clear on the latest chart:
advance → corrective wave iv → wave v higher
The important question is how deep the correction becomes.
A pullback toward $4,511.877 would keep the structure relatively shallow, while a deeper move toward $4,399.854 would still remain within the projected corrective area shown on the chart.
If that correction develops as anticipated and support holds, the next impulsive leg is projected toward:
$5,121.540
with a higher extension at:
$5,226.675
These are the next major upside objectives currently marked on the chart.
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Primary Scenario
The preferred scenario is for Gold to complete the current impulsive advance, develop the projected wave iv correction, and then resume higher through a final wave v.
The $4,511.877–$4,399.854 region is therefore the key area to watch during any pullback.
A successful hold within this zone would keep the projected bullish sequence intact and open the door toward $5,121.540, followed by $5,226.675.
Invalidation
The latest chart places the count invalidation at $4,203.306.
As long as price remains above this level, the current bullish Elliott Wave structure remains technically viable.
A break below $4,203.306 would invalidate the current count and require the structure to be reassessed.
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Fundamental Context
Gold’s latest move is occurring against a backdrop of several competing macro forces.
Reuters reports that spot gold was trading around $4,654 on August 26 after reaching a more than three-month high, while markets await U.S. July PCE inflation data for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next move. Traders are also watching Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech.
The rate outlook remains particularly important. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the Fed may need to raise rates if inflation fails to continue declining, highlighting the tension between persistent inflation and expectations for eventual easing.
At the same time, recent Treasury actions have pushed long-term yields lower and weakened the dollar, a combination that has supported demand for gold and other alternative assets. Reuters reported that gold surged following the Treasury’s announcement of increased long-dated bond buybacks.
Structural demand is also supporting the longer-term narrative. Reuters reported that central-bank gold purchases reached 289 tonnes in Q2 2026, while China’s gold imports through Hong Kong increased again in July.
So the fundamental backdrop remains supportive, but the immediate catalyst is likely to be the interaction between U.S. inflation data, Treasury yields, the dollar and Fed expectations.
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Kap Waves Outlook
The original bullish thesis has now moved beyond its first objective.
The $4,698.740 target has been reached, and the market is now transitioning into the next structural phase.
The latest Elliott Wave count favors a corrective wave iv before another potential advance toward $5,121.540–$5,226.675.
The most important area to watch next is therefore $4,511.877–$4,399.854.
If that zone holds, the bullish structure remains favored.
If $4,203.306 breaks, the current count is invalidated and the structure needs to be reconsidered.