XAUUSD is trading around 4,653 after the latest bullish expansion stalled below the major bearish Order Block. The broader structure remains elevated, but H1 momentum is beginning to weaken after price lost the ascending trendline and formed an MSS near the highs.
Gold is holding near 4,650 as traders wait for U.S. PCE inflation later today. Markets currently lean toward the Fed holding rates in September, while Friday’s Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh remains the next major policy catalyst. Softer inflation could support gold, while a hotter PCE print may strengthen the dollar and yields and accelerate profit-taking.
Technical View
Gold has broken below the short-term ascending trendline after reaching the 4,680 area, signaling that the latest bullish leg is losing momentum.
The 4,590–4,615 area is the first retracement zone. Price may react here before attempting another recovery toward premium.
The main decision area remains the 4,685–4,706 major bearish OB. A retest followed by bearish rejection would provide the cleaner sell setup shown on the chart.
If sellers regain control, 4,500–4,525 becomes the primary downside objective, where the OB + POI and strong demand align.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,653
First retracement zone: 4,590–4,615
Sell Priority / Major Bearish OB: 4,685–4,706
Main target / Strong Demand: 4,500–4,525
Deep SLL target: 4,325–4,350
H1 structural invalidation: 4,311.912
Bearish setup invalidation: above 4,710
Trading Plan
Sell Priority: 4,685–4,706
Condition: wait for price to revisit the major bearish OB and show bearish rejection, failed acceptance above premium or lower-high confirmation.
SL: above 4,710
TP1: 4,590–4,615
TP2: 4,500–4,525
TP3: 4,325–4,350
Important Note
Price may first retrace into 4,590–4,615 and rebound before the larger bearish leg develops. Avoid chasing a sell after displacement away from premium.
PCE today and Jackson Hole later this week can create aggressive liquidity sweeps, so confirmation around the bearish OB is more important than anticipating the move.
Final View
Gold remains strong on the broader structure, but the H1 setup now favours a corrective bearish move if 4,685–4,706 rejects. The cleaner plan is to sell only after confirmation from the major bearish OB, targeting 4,600 first and 4,500–4,525 if downside momentum expands.
Will gold retest the major bearish OB before starting the deeper H1 correction?