Looking ahead at the gold market over the next 15 days, the primary focus is undoubtedly the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report for July—due on Wednesday—and Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. The data will directly influence expectations regarding Fed rate hikes, thereby affecting the US dollar and Treasury yields, and ultimately determining the direction of gold prices.
After failing to decisively break through the key 4,700 level over two consecutive days, chasing the rally in the short term carries significant risk. Gold retreated from a high of 4,696 under selling pressure, dropping to an interim low of 4,605; however, concentrated buying at lower levels triggered a strong rebound. The bulls regained most of the lost ground, pushing the price back toward the previous high and forming a “deep V-shaped” reversal, which has rapidly revived bullish sentiment in the market.
Traders should closely monitor volatility stemming from upcoming economic data and watch for a potential breakout above the resistance at the previous high. Be wary of a pullback or “shakeout” following any upward surge. Given the current market pattern of repeated fluctuations at high levels, avoid blindly chasing highs; the ability to decisively break the 4,700 level will be the key factor determining gold’s next phase of movement.
Suggested buying ranges:
BUY: 4,605–4,610
BUY: 4,595–4,600