– Friday Recap
On Friday, AUDTHB closed at 23.69 in the Thai market. Meanwhile, the RBA’s outlook remains exposed to inflation risks, keeping the market closely focused on the interest rate outlook. This remains a short-term supportive factor for the AUD.
Overall, the AUD continues to receive support from the RBA’s policy outlook and relatively resilient economic conditions.
– Fundamental 31/8/26
Key News Today
AUDTHB: 08:00 – MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.5% | Forecast: – | Previous: 1.0%
AUDTHB: 08:30 – China Manufacturing PMI
49.8 | Forecast: 49.5 | Previous: 49.2
Today, the market will focus on the MI Inflation Gauge to assess Australia’s inflation outlook. The figure came in at 0.5%, down from the previous reading of 1.0%, reflecting a slowdown in price pressures. This could reduce expectations for a more hawkish RBA policy stance and limit the upside of the AUD.
Meanwhile, China Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.8, above the forecast of 49.5 and the previous reading of 49.2. Although the index remains below the 50 level, the improvement signals a recovery in China’s manufacturing sector, which could support the AUD given China’s importance as a major trading partner of Australia.
For the Thai Baht, the market will continue to monitor the direction of the USD and Risk Sentiment. A Risk-On environment could support the AUD, while a stronger Thai Baht could limit the upside of AUDTHB.
Overall, AUDTHB is expected to move within a range with a slight bullish bias, supported by stronger-than-expected China PMI but capped by the slowdown in the MI Inflation Gauge. The key factors to watch are China PMI, Australian inflation, RBA policy, and the direction of the USD.
– Technical Analysis
Bias: Bullish
AUDTHB remains Bullish after forming consecutive Higher Lows and holding above the key moving averages.
The key range is 23.70–23.80. The focus is on the price holding above 23.75 to test 23.80. If the price breaks through this level, it could open the way for further upside.
Resistance: 23.80
This is a key resistance level. If the price breaks out above 23.80, it could open the way for further upside.
Support: 23.75 / 23.70
These are important support levels. The price remains above support and the overall structure is still bullish. If the price holds above 23.75, it could continue higher to test 23.80.
Target: 23.80
Cut Loss: 23.70
If the price breaks below 23.70, the short-term bullish structure would be invalidated, with potential for further downside.