XAUUSD — 4,427 Break Opens 4,320 Next
Gold is starting the new week on the back foot, and this drop doesn’t look random.
Price has been rolling lower from the late-August highs after losing momentum inside that descending corrective channel. The important part now is that gold has already pushed down into the major FVG around 4,427 and is no longer holding the previous bullish structure. That tells me the market is shifting from “healthy pullback” into a more aggressive distribution phase.
Fundamentally, the pressure also makes sense. Warsh is still warning that the Fed has more work to do on inflation, which keeps rate expectations alive and gives the USD support. On top of that, fresh US strikes on Iranian rocket launchers add another layer of geopolitical tension, and that kind of backdrop can keep markets defensive rather than cleanly risk-on.
From the chart, I’m focused on continuation lower while price stays below the sell zone overhead. Any bounce from the current FVG looks more like a reaction than a confirmed reversal for now. If sellers keep price capped and the market fails to reclaim the broken structure, I think the next leg can extend into the first bearish target zone around 4,320.
So my main view this week is still bearish. Let price decide inside the current FVG first, but unless gold can reclaim the upper supply area, I’m treating rallies as pullbacks inside a broader downside move.
Key Price Zones to Watch
Current reaction zone: 4,427 area
Main FVG support: 4,360 – 4,427
First bearish target zone: 4,315 – 4,325
Intraday rebound zone: 4,480 – 4,520
Main sell zone / invalidation area: 4,600 – 4,630
Invalidation: clean reclaim and hold back above the sell zone
Do you see gold filling lower toward 4,320 first, or can buyers defend this FVG and force a deeper rebound?