The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up by +0.93% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up by +0.39%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.97%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) are up +1.00%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) are up +2.14%.
Stock indexes are rising today, with the S&P 500 posting a 1.5-week high and the Nasdaq 100 posting a 5-week high. Stocks are finding support today on weakness in crude oil prices, which has pushed bond yields lower and improved market sentiment. WTI crude is down more than -4% at a 1-week low, and the 10-year T-note yield is down -3 bp to 4.96%. Also, positive anticipation ahead of a summit later this week between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping is lifting equity markets. In addition, stock indexes are climbing on support from a rally in chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks, along with a rally in cryptocurrency-exposed stocks, as Bitcoin’s price surges to a 7.5-month high.
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Stocks garnered support today on optimism about talks between the US and China after US and Chinese officials offered upbeat assessments of their talks on artificial intelligence, trade, and investment ahead of this week’s summit between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said, “The focus is on stability between the US and China,” and we are working on a trade truce extension.
Today’s US economic news showed the Aug Chicago Fed national activity index fell -0.12 to -0.04, right on expectations.
Hawkish comments today from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee were negative for stocks and bonds when he said that to restore price stability, the Fed may need to raise interest rates further and narrow the gap between supply and demand, which could lead to drops in employment, wages, and growth.
Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) is up more than +5% today at a 7.5-month high, adding to last Friday’s +5% surge, after the SEC moved forward with a plan to allow digital versions of securities to start trading in the US.
Oct WTI crude oil prices (CLV26) are down more than -4% today to a 1-week low on diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war and signs that crude flows are still getting through the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said he would “probably” be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York this week. Also, Admiral Brad Cooper, head of US Central Command, said crude and LNG flows in the past two weeks through the Strait of Hormuz are running at a six-month high.
Markets are discounting a 53% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
Overseas stock markets are higher today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.17%. China’s Shanghai Composite climbed to a 1.5-week high and closed up +0.97%. Japan’s Nikkei-225 Stock Average did not trade today with Japanese markets closed for the Respect-for-the-Aged Day holiday.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are up by +8 ticks today. The 10-year T-note yield is down -3.9 bp to 4.957%. T-notes are climbing today after WTI crude oil fell more than -3% to a 1-week low, easing inflation expectations. T-notes fell back from their best level on hawkish comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who said that to restore price stability, the Fed may need to raise interest rates further. Supply pressures are also bearish for T-notes as the Treasury will auction $211 billion of T-notes and floating-rate notes this week, beginning with Tuesday’s auction of $69 billion of 2-year T-notes.
European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 1-week low of 3.442% and is down -7.2 bp to 3.447%. The 10-year UK gilt yield dropped to a 1-week low of 5.200% and is down -8.4 bp to 5.211%.
In its monthly report released today, the German Bundesbank said Q3 GDP will expand only “modestly” in Q3 because of short-term drivers like low water levels in the Rhine River, but the economy is expected to grow at a “stronger” pace again in Q4 and will “remain on its current path to recovery.” The Bundesbank added that “persistently high prices, not only for crude oil but also for natural gas and electricity, could amplify both direct and indirect effects and delay the return of the inflation rate to 2%.”
Markets are discounting a 46% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.
US Stock Movers
Chipmakers and AI stocks are climbing today, supporting gains in the broader market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is up more than +3% at a 5-week high. ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) is up more than +12% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100, and Intel (INTC) is up more than +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up more than +9%, and Qualcomm (QCOM) is up more than +5%. In addition, Marvell Technology (MRVL), Micron Technology (MU), Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX), and KLA Corp (KLAC) are up more than +2%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are moving higher today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) up more than +5% to a 7.5-month high on positive carryover from last Friday when the SEC moved forward with a plan to allow digital versions of securities to start trading in the US. Strategy (MSTR) is up more than +7%, and BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) is up more than +6%. Also, Coinbase Global (COIN) and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) are up more than +5%, and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are up more than +4%. In addition, Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is up more than +3%, Bullish (BLSH) is up more than +2%, and MARA Holdings (MARA) and Iren Ltd (IREN) are up more than +1%.
Cybersecurity stocks are climbing today, supporting gains in the overall market. Cloudflare (NET) is up more than +5%, and SentinelOne (S) and Zscaler (ZS) are up mor than +4%. Also, Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) and Okta (OKTA) are up more than +3%, and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Fortinet (FTNT) are up more than +2%.
Airlines and cruise line operators are gaining today due to the -4% plunge in WTI crude oil to a 1-weeklow, which lowers fuel costs and boosts profitability prospects for the companies. United Airlines Holdings (UAL) is up more than +3%, and American Airlines Group (AAL) is up more than +2%. Also, Delta Air Lines (DAL), Alaska Air Group (ALK), Carnival (CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) are up more than +1%.
Energy stocks and service providers are falling today, with WTI crude oil down more than -4% to a 1-week low. ConocoPhillips (COP) is down more than -3%, and Diamondback Energy (FANG), ExxonMobil Holdings (XOM), Halliburton (HAL), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), APA Corp (APA), Devon Energy (DVN), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Valero Energy (VLO) are down more than -2%. In addition, Slb Ltd (SLB) is down more than -1%, and Chevron (CVX) is down more than -1% to lead losers in the Dow Jones Industrials.
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is up more than +10%, and Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is up more than +5% as Paramount is in settlement talks with California officials over its planned acquisition of Warner.
Candel Therapeutics (CADL) is up more than +5% after Bank of America Global Research upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $18.
Ciena (CIEN) is up more than +3% after Evercore ISI upgraded the stock to outperform from in line with a price target of $550.
HP Inc. (HPQ) is down more than -4% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after projecting that industry-wide personal computer unit volumes will decline mid-single-digits in 2027.
Earnings Reports (9/21/2026)
BRT Apartments Corp (BRT).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com