PLD · 1W · Long
My BoaBias ALMA Strategy has an open long position in $PLD.
This is a systematic countertrend setup. The strategy looks for mean-reversion entries when price is stretched below the ALMA averages, then manages the position through its averaging and exit rules.
Why I’m in the trade
The position currently has 2/4 lots filled, with an average entry around $134.04.
The entry fits the strategy’s countertrend approach: the latest system snapshot shows PLD below the ALMA averages on the daily, 3-day and weekly timeframes, with those readings marked as stretched. That creates the kind of downside extension the strategy is designed to engage. The broader decline can continue, so the setup still depends on the strategy’s position and exit management.
Research Hub
The latest Research Hub snapshot shows Greed across both the overall US stock category and the system’s Financials group. PLD’s individual verdict is negative, reflecting weak relative price action despite solid operating results and the proposed SEGRO transaction.
- US Stocks: Greed 59.3 across 228 notes
- US · Financials: Greed 58.1 across 29 notes
- PLD: Negative asset verdict
Market Edge
My Market Edge model aggregates technical indicators across multiple timeframes. The dashboard currently shows a supportive broad-market reading, a stronger sector reading and a neutral reading for PLD itself.
- US Stocks: Neutral 82
- US · Financials: Strong Long Edge 92
- PLD: Neutral 52
The sector reading points to a pronounced mean-reversion backdrop in the system’s Financials group. PLD’s own Edge remains Neutral, so the sector signal is stronger than the stock-specific one.
The technical picture is mixed. Daily RSI is oversold, and bullish fair value gaps show a modest historical bounce-up skew. At the same time, price remains below the tracked EMA averages from 1H through 1W, and recent bearish structure keeps downside risk in view.
- 1D bull FVG: bounce up 55.0% vs. break down 45.0% (n=901)
- 4H bull FVG: bounce up 54.6% vs. break down 45.4% (n=1,701)
- 1W bull FVG: bounce up 66.0% vs. break down 34.0% (n=141)
- Daily RSI 9 and RSI 14: oversold
- Price is below the tracked EMA averages from 1H through 1W
- 4H bear FVG raid: bounce up 43.3% vs. break down 56.7% (n=1,518)
- 1W bear FVG raid: bounce up 39.0% vs. break down 61.0% (n=105)
- Falling wedge pattern: bounce up 29.0% vs. break down 71.0% (n=7; small sample)
Sentiment
The sentiment dashboard shows Greed in the broad market and the system’s Financials group, with no asset-specific PLD reading.
- US Stocks: Greed 59
- US · Financials: Greed 58
- PLD: No asset-specific sentiment data
Recent PLD developments
Prologis reported second-quarter Core FFO of $1.63 per diluted share, up 11.6% year over year. Period-end occupancy was 95.5%, while cash same-store NOI grew 8.5%. The company also raised its 2026 guidance for the second time, citing record leasing and improving operating fundamentals.
SEGRO shareholders approved the proposed combination with Prologis on September 28, with more than 98% of votes in favour. The transaction remains subject to further conditions, including court and regulatory approvals; Prologis expects completion in the first half of 2027.
Prologis is scheduled to report third-quarter results on October 15. That will be the next major company update for the operating outlook and transaction context.
Historical 1W PLD model
- 77% win rate
- 2.8 average RR
- +29.6% average winning trade
- −10.7% average losing trade
- ~60 weekly bars average holding time
- 5% max strategy drawdown
These are historical strategy results, not a forecast for this position.
Current position
- Bias: Long
- Average entry: approximately $134.04
- Lots filled: 2/4
- Holding period: 2 weekly bars so far
- Historical average holding period: approximately 60 weekly bars
- Strategy stop: approximately $120.64, 10% below the current average entry
The strategy can add up to two more lots if its averaging conditions are triggered. If that happens, the average entry and stop level will adjust with the position.
I’ll follow the strategy’s conditions and let it manage the trade through its systematic exit. The long setup is based on mean reversion after an ALMA stretch; the weak higher-timeframe structure and PLD’s negative Hub verdict remain the main risks.
News → Charts → Strategy → Execution.