ā± Timeframe: 4H chart
EDU/USDT (4H) has jumped about +18% in a few candles, from the 0.051 area to 0.0601, and is now trading above the upper Bollinger Band. Price is also pushing into a marked resistance zone. I’m taking a mean-reversion short.
š Context
The market had been ranging between roughly 0.047 and 0.055 for weeks before this vertical move.
The last candle shows a long upper wick up to ~0.063, a possible sign of sellers reacting near the resistance zone (0.0625-0.066).
Price is above the upper band (~0.0596), so the move looks extended in the short term.
STC (12,26,50) is pinned at ~99.99, in overbought territory.
The middle band (~0.0533) is the first area where price could revert if the spike fades, and the old range sits below it.
This is a short against a strong push higher, so I’m using a defined stop above the resistance zone.
šÆ Trade Plan (Short)
Entry: 0.0601
TP: 0.0492 (back inside the previous range)
SL: 0.0660 (above the resistance zone)
Risk/reward > 2:1
ā ļø Invalidation
A 4H close above 0.0625 (the wick high) weakens the idea, and a close above 0.0660 invalidates it. STC can stay overbought for a long time in strong moves, so I won’t short without a stop.
š¬ Do you see a rejection at this resistance or a breakout? Let me know in the comments.
This is only my personal analysis and not financial advice. Do your own research and manage your risk.