R3 4244
R2 4220
R1 4205
Pivot 4181
S1 4157
S2 4142
S3 4118
Price is below the pivot at 4170. After Monday’s sell-off from R1, sellers ran out of steam at 4155, and price has crept back up through the night.
Monday’s play from the pivot is still running. The stop is at breakeven, so it cannot cost anything. It stays open while price holds below the pivot zone, with today’s S1 at 4157 the next level down.
Part of that decision is the overnight swap. On gold, swaps are currently positive on the short side with our broker, so a protected short is paid a little each night it is held. A trade that cannot lose and earns while it waits is worth keeping. Swap rates vary between brokers and change over time, so check your own before holding anything overnight.
The pivot is the level that matters today. It sits just above Monday’s pivot at 4178, the level that broke yesterday afternoon, so 4178–4181 is a zone sellers have already defended once.
Pivot holds: sellers will try to take price to S1 at 4157.
A clear hourly close above the pivot: R1 at 4205 comes back into view, where sellers have held twice already. The stop takes the play out flat.
Monday’s range was $63, so today’s levels are mid-width. There is $48 between S1 and R1, and $125 from S3 to R3. Wait for the hourly close and the retest.
US CPI tomorrow at 13:30 UK. Expect the market to get more careful as we get closer to it.
Back for London.