XAGUSD: Elliott Wave 5 Signals a Reversal?

Could Silver be completing its final bearish Elliott Wave before buyers regain control?

While the market continues displaying bearish momentum, I believe XAG/USD is approaching an area where a significant bullish reversal could begin.

My current outlook is BULLISH, provided price successfully defends its historical demand zones and confirms a shift in market structure.

🌊 1. Elliott Wave Analysis — The Final Wave?

Looking at the daily timeframe, Silver appears to be developing a five-wave bearish sequence.

📉 Wave (1): Initial bearish impulse.

📈 Wave (2): Corrective retracement.

📉 Wave (3): Continued bearish expansion toward $59.

📈 Wave (4): Temporary recovery and consolidation.

📉 Wave (5): Potential final downward movement into the $55–$56 demand region.

If this working count is correct, Silver may be approaching the completion of its bearish impulse.

Following a completed five-wave decline, an A-B-C corrective rally becomes a possibility.

The opportunity I’m watching isn’t simply a bounce. It’s the potential beginning of a larger recovery.

💧 2. Liquidity & Institutional Demand

The $55–$56 region is particularly interesting because it previously served as a foundation for an aggressive bullish expansion.

This suggests that the area may attract renewed buying interest.

My primary zones are:

🔵 Demand 1: $55.70–$56.40

🔵 Demand 2: $54.90–$55.20

A sweep beneath recent lows followed by an aggressive reclaim would strengthen the reversal scenario.

However, these are potential demand zones, not proof of institutional buying.

📊 3. RSI — Are Sellers Losing Momentum?

Silver’s RSI is near the lower end of its recent range, reflecting substantial selling pressure.

I’m watching for evidence of bullish divergence as price tests demand.

A bullish RSI divergence alongside a confirmed Wave (5) completion would provide additional technical confluence.

📈 4. Market Structure & Moving Averages

Silver remains below its major moving averages, meaning the current trend is technically bearish.

For my bullish thesis to gain confirmation, I want to see:

✅ A bullish rejection from demand.

✅ A higher low on the lower timeframes.

✅ A bullish break of structure.

✅ A successful reclaim of $59.19.

✅ Momentum expansion toward $64.30.

🎯 5. Bullish Price Targets

If buyers successfully defend demand:

🎯 TP1: $59.19 — Initial resistance

🎯 TP2: $60.50 — Previous consolidation

🎯 TP3: $64.30 — Major resistance

🎯 TP4: $65.00 — Moving-average resistance

🚀 Extended Target: $67–$69

⚠️ Invalidation

A sustained daily close below $54.90, particularly followed by a failed reclaim, would weaken this reversal thesis and suggest that the bearish sequence may extend further.

🧠 Final Thoughts

My bias is BULLISH, but my execution requires CONFIRMATION.

Silver may be in the final stages of a bearish Elliott Wave sequence.

If demand holds and market structure turns bullish, this could develop into an attractive recovery opportunity.

I am not interested in predicting the exact bottom. I’m interested in identifying the point where buyers demonstrate control.

Patience. Confluence. Execution. That’s the Wright Way.

💬 Do you believe Silver is completing Wave (5), or is another major bearish move coming?

— WrightWayInvestments