DAILY PLAN | XAUUSD
Oct 19 plan recap: no scenario reached TP.
Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026 – H1 chart – Price at time of writing (7:15 PM ET, Oct 19): 4133
1. Market structure
– D1: After the 4697 top (Aug 25), gold sold off and has been ranging between 4066 and 4228 since late September. Range highs keep getting lower: 4227 → 4217 → 4199 → 4190, while the lows hold at 4066–4073. The Oct 19 daily candle was rejected at 4190 and closed at 4141, near the low of the day, a bearish close.
– H4: The bounce from 4073 (Oct 14) to 4199 (Oct 16) printed a lower high at 4190 (Oct 19), then broke the 4147 low from Oct 16. H4 structure has turned bearish short term.
– H1/M15: A clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows from 4190: highs 4177 → 4170 → 4155 → 4150, lows 4143 → 4137 → 4133. Price is testing the 4130–4136 support, and Asian-session bounces are capped below 4150.
2. Key price zones
– Resistance 4168–4177: H1 highs from the Oct 19 European session, distribution before the drop.
– Resistance 4145–4150: the latest bounce highs (Oct 19 US session and Asian session), the nearest breakdown level.
– Support 4130–4136: Oct 15 lows (4130–4132), being tested now.
– Support 4103–4111: Oct 15 Asian-session base and Oct 8 lows.
– Major support 4066–4085: D1 range lows (Oct 7 and Oct 14).
3. Main scenarios
Scenario 1 – SELL the pullback into resistance (preferred, with H1/H4 structure)
– Entry zone: 4145–4150, Entry 4148
– Trigger: price pulls back into 4145–4150 and prints a rejection candle on H1/M15 (long upper wick, bearish engulfing)
– SL: 4157
– TP1: 4136 | TP2: 4124 | TP3: 4108
– R:R: 1:1.3 / 1:2.7 / 1:4.4
Scenario 2 – BUY at deeper support 4103–4111 (range bounce on D1)
– Entry zone: 4105–4110, Entry 4108
– Trigger: price reaches 4103–4111 with a false break or a bullish pin bar/engulfing on H1/M15, and no H1 close below 4103
– SL: 4097
– TP1: 4120 | TP2: 4134 | TP3: 4148
– R:R: 1:1.1 / 1:2.4 / 1:3.6
4. Alternative scenarios
– If H1 closes below 4130 and the retest of 4130–4133 is rejected: a breakdown SELL is possible, targets 4111 then 4103, SL above 4140.
– If H1 closes above 4157: the H1 bearish structure weakens, drop the 4148 SELL and wait for a reaction at 4168–4177 to look for a new SELL; consider BUYs only on an H1 close above 4177.
5. Invalidation
– Scenario 1 is invalid on an H1 close above 4157, or if price hits 4124 before pulling back into 4145–4150.
– Scenario 2 is invalid on an H1 close below 4097 (opens the way to 4066–4085), or if price reaches 4134 before filling the entry zone.
– No new entries within 15 minutes around high-impact news.
6. Conclusion
Intraday bias is bearish: lower highs on D1, H4 and H1, with price pressing the 4130–4136 support. Prefer SELLs on a pullback into 4145–4150 with a rejection candle; the BUY at 4103–4111 is a secondary setup only with a clear hold signal. News to watch (New York time, Oct 20): 8:30 AM ET US Housing Starts and Building Permits, 10:00 AM ET Pending Home Sales. The Fed is in its blackout period ahead of the Oct 27–28 meeting. Check spread before entering.
Note: This is personal analysis for reference only, not investment advice. Gold trading carries high risk; manage your capital and take responsibility for your own decisions.