👑 My call: the chip selloff swept the sell-side down to €1,422 and buyers stepped straight back in. I lean 60/40 that ASML reclaims the 50-day MA (~€1,518) and squeezes to the 21-day MA (~€1,557) this week.
Context: ASML (Euronext Amsterdam) closed at ~€1,496 (+1.3% on the day) after a -5% week. Price sits just under the 50-day MA, the line that has carried the uptrend since the summer. Can buyers hold the reclaim?
🐂 Bull case
Trigger: a daily close back above €1,518 (50-day MA).
Target: €1,557, then €1,564 (weekly high) and €1,674 (20-day high).
Invalidation: a new low below €1,422.
🐻 Bear case
Trigger: rejection at €1,518 plus a 4H MSS lower.
Target: a retest of €1,422, and on a break a deeper flush toward €1,400.
Invalidation: a daily close above €1,557.
Liquidity map: the stops sit above the weekly high at €1,564. The sell-side under €1,422 has already been taken, so I expect the buy-side to get hit first.
Watch the semis (NVDA, TSM, ASMI, BESI): ASML rarely moves alone.
Bear trap or just a pause before the next leg down? Drop your take 👇
Not financial advice. Manage your risk.