From a daily chart perspective, gold prices closed with a large bearish candlestick today, breaking through all previous key support levels. The moving average system shows a standard bearish alignment, with short-term and medium-term moving averages diverging downwards in tandem, fully opening the downward channel with no signs of a bottom. In terms of indicators, the MACD indicator shows a continued downward divergence after a death cross, with the green histogram expanding significantly to a recent high, indicating that bearish momentum is in a sustained release phase with no signs of exhaustion. The KDJ indicator quickly fell into oversold territory and became stagnant; even with the J value significantly below 20, no effective rebound was triggered. This phenomenon fully illustrates the strength of the current one-sided bearish trend, with any weak short-term correction completely overwhelmed by bearish momentum, unable to change the overall downward trend. It is worth noting that all previous key support levels (4960, 4834, 4800, 4700) have been effectively broken, all turning into strong resistance levels. Any subsequent rebound will face heavy resistance, severely compressing the upside potential.

From a 4-hour chart perspective, gold prices have exhibited a sharp decline, with each brief period of consolidation followed by a new round of rapid drops, indicating consistently strong bearish momentum. The consecutive large bearish candlesticks with long bodies indicate that the bears have a firm grip on the market and there is strong selling pressure. In terms of volume, the 4-hour chart displays a pattern of “rapid drops with high volume, consolidation with low volume.” The significant surge in volume during the sharp declines confirms the market sentiment of large sell orders entering the market, profit-taking, and the triggering of technical stop-loss orders, further highlighting the strength of the bearish momentum. Short-term rebounds lack sufficient financial support and are unlikely to be effective; after a period of consolidation, a continuation of the sharp decline is highly probable.

In summary, gold is currently facing a confluence of multiple negative factors, and the downtrend is fully established with strong momentum, showing no signs of reversal in the short term. In the short term, gold prices will continue to move towards the $4500-$4480 range, with a key focus on the support level within this range. A decisive break below this level would likely lead to a further decline towards $4400. In the medium to long term, the Fed’s hawkish policies, high inflation expectations, and a strong dollar are unlikely to change in the short term, making the downtrend for gold clear and leaving room for further declines. The recommended trading strategy is to resolutely follow the downtrend and avoid blindly buying the dip or chasing the market higher to prevent being trapped in losses: Enter short positions on rallies to the $4600-$4650 range, with a stop-loss above $4680 and a target of $4520-$4500. If the price breaks below $4500, continue to enter short positions with a target of $4480-$4450.