What are the main events for today?

EUROPEAN SESSION

In the European session, we get three central bank policy decisions. The SNB is expected to hold interest rates unchanged at 0.0%. The focus will be on central bank’s signals about potential intervention in the currency market after EUR/CHF fell to 0.90 recently amid the US-Iran conflict.

The BoE is expected to leave the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote split and take a “wait and see” approach, while maintaining an easing bias. The central bank will want to keep a cautious tone amid the US-Iran war and the increase in energy prices.

The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.00%. The new macro forecasts are expected to show an upward revision for inflation in the short-term and a downgrade to growth. The central bank will likely maintain its “meeting-by-meeting” and “data-dependent” approach but more emphasis on upside risks to inflation stemming from energy prices.

AMERICAN SESSION

In the American session, the only highlight is the US Jobless Claims data. Initial Claims are expected at 215K vs 213K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1850K vs 1850K prior. The market is now more worried about downside risks to the economy amid the US-Iran war and the elevated energy prices, so meaningful upside deviations in claims might trigger risk-off moves in the markets.