The USDJPY moved lower earlier in the session, but the decline found willing buyers at the 100-hour moving average, a level that has proven important in recent trading. This same moving average held as support on Wednesday last week, triggering a bounce higher. Today’s test produced a similar reaction, with buyers stepping in once again.
However, the rebound stalled near the 159.35 area, an intermediate resistance zone. Sellers leaned against that level and pushed the pair back to the downside. Over the past few hours, momentum has shifted lower again, bringing the price back toward a retest of the 100-hour moving average.
This sets up an important short-term battle for traders.
If sellers are able to break below the 100-hour moving average, downside momentum could increase, with the next targets coming near the rising 200-hour moving average and the ascending trendline near 158.34. A move toward that confluence would signal a deeper corrective phase.
On the other hand, if the 100-hour MA holds as support once again, buyers may regain control. In that case, traders will be watching resistance levels at 159.21, 159.45, and then the recent highs from Friday and earlier today near 159.75.
Key levels to watch
• Support: 100-hour MA, 158.34 (200-hour MA + rising trendline)
• Resistance: 159.21, 159.45, 159.75