- BTC falls back from 76k to test 70k
- The prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates weighs on markets
- Rising Treasury yields tighten liquidity
- Soaring oil prices increase inflation worries
BTC Technical Analysis
has fallen sharply from its weekly high of $76K after the Federal Reserve left unchanged, as expected, but signalled a more cautious approach to policy going forward.
BTC is down around 5% over the past 24 hours, falling back to test the $70K level — a weekly low. The broader cryptocurrency market is also under pressure, with total market capitalisation down 4.7% to $2.42 trillion as investors digest the latest FOMC decision alongside rising oil prices.
Fed Signals Caution Despite Resilient Growth
As expected, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged in the 3.5%–3.75% range. The central bank also raised its forecast to 2.7% and, notably, lifted its growth forecast to 2.4%, despite the increasingly challenging backdrop created by the conflict in the Middle East.
However, in a more hawkish shift, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that inflation has not cooled as much as hoped, raising doubts over whether the Fed will be able to deliver the rate cut it has signalled for later this year. He also noted that it is too early to fully assess the economic impact of the conflict but acknowledged that rising energy prices could keep policy restrictive for longer.
Powell added that inflation — the Fed’s preferred measure — remains elevated at 3.1%, still well above the 2% target. Meanwhile, recent data showed wholesale inflation rising to 3.4%, reinforcing the view that price pressures were already building before the latest surge in energy costs.
Oil Surge Tightens Financial Conditions
have continued to climb, reaching around $113 per barrel — one of the highest levels since the conflict began. prices have also jumped as energy infrastructure in the region comes under threat and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
The rise in energy prices is feeding into inflation expectations, pushing Treasury yields higher and strengthening the US dollar — a combination that tightens financial conditions and typically weighs on liquidity-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin.
Risk Assets Under Pressure
The prospect of persistently high energy prices, rising inflation and higher interest rates for longer has triggered a broader sell-off in risk assets. US equities closed around 1.5% lower, with futures pointing to further weakness. At the same time, Treasury yields and the US dollar are both rising.
So far, Bitcoin has managed to hold above the key $70,000 level — an important psychological support.
However, if oil prices continue to rise and inflation pressures build further, BTC could struggle to maintain this level. A sustained break below $70K would signal that macro headwinds are starting to outweigh recent resilience in crypto markets.
BTC Technical Analysis
BTC has traded in an ascending channel since mid-February. The price ran into resistance at 76k, the upper band of the rising channel, before rebounding lower. The price is testing 70k support, the 50 SMA and the round number.
Should sellers succeed in breaking down 70k, this opens the door to the 65k support zone, the lower band of the rising channel and the March low. A break below here could spark a deeper selloff towards 60k.
Should the support hold, buyers will look to recover above 74k horizontal resistance, and a rise above 76k will create a higher high, paving the way for a recovery to 80k.
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