After a series of consecutive breaks of the upward trendlines on the D1 frame, gold has officially lost its previous bullish structure and shifted to a distribution ā markdown state. Notably, recent recoveries have been weak, unable to reclaim lost structural areas, while declines have been swift and decisive. This is a typical characteristic of a market that has shifted to a bearish phase, where large capital flows prioritize exiting positions rather than accumulating.
On the macroeconomic front, pressure from the USD maintaining its strength along with expectations of continued monetary tightening is laying the foundation for gold’s downward trend. However, the more important factor lies in how the market reacts: even when supportive information appears, prices still cannot maintain upward momentum. This indicates that buying power is no longer strong enough to control the market, and the current structure clearly reflects a dominant bearish bias.
On the D1 frame, gold has formed a series of lower highs ā lower lows, simultaneously breaking important demand zones, turning them into supply. The price is currently in the process of retesting the confluence area between the old demand, trendline, and FVG ā this is a decisive area, acting as a medium-term supply zone. If it cannot surpass this area, the market is likely to continue expanding the decline to lower liquidity zones.
In the main scenario, if the price cannot reclaim the 4600ā4700 zone, the downward trend will continue to be reinforced with targets sequentially at 4300 ā 4100, and further to the 4000 zone ā where large liquidity is concentrated on the medium-term frame. Conversely, in the secondary scenario, if the price recovers to the 4700ā4800 zone, this is likely just a pullback to the supply zone before continuing the main downward trend.
WEEKLY SCENARIO 23/03
Main scenario (HIGH PROBABILITY ā SELL CONTINUATION):
ā¢ Price does not reclaim the 4600 ā 4700 zone
ā continues breakdown to 4300 ā 4100
ā further to the large liquidity zone around 4000
Secondary scenario (RETEST ā TRAP):
ā¢ If the price recovers to the 4700 ā 4800 zone
ā just a pullback to supply
ā continues to be sold down according to the main trend
Overall, the market is currently in a clear transition phase from bullish to bearish, with both structure and capital flow supporting the bearish scenario. Recoveries should be seen as opportunities to join the trend, rather than expecting a reversal. In this context, the appropriate strategy remains to prioritize SELL according to important retest zones, while monitoring price reactions at decisive points to confirm the continuation of the trend in the coming week.