US assessment: Iran could keep Hormuz shut for anywhere from one to six months

CNN is out with a report highlighting the difficulty of reopening the Strait of Hormuz:

US officials are furiously trying to avert a potential months-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz, privately acknowledging that reopening the key waterway is a problem without a clear solution

The report from the Defense Intelligence Agency said it could remain shut from 1-6 months, citing four sources familiar.

An official pushed back against the six-month scenario, saying:

the six month closure of the Strait of Hormuz is an impossibility and completely unacceptable to the Secretary of War

Oil is higher on this report but it’s notable that this assessment isn’t current, it was said to be circulating “in recent weeks” which suggests it was prepared before the war and wouldn’t necessarily reflect damage since or indications of Iranian capabilities.

I found this detail to be particularly challenging from a logistics standpoint:

Escort missions through the strait would require several destroyers per tanker

Before the war, there were 40-50 tankers a day normally plus twice as many cargo ships. That sounds…difficult, particularly given that a full passage of the strait takes about 40 hours.