Today’s focus is on the $4320 to $4480 range.
Hello everyone.
Q: What are the new developments in the gold market today?
A: Gold prices continued their weak downward trend today, but buying support remained weak, with each small rebound being suppressed by selling pressure.
The fundamental reason remains that inflation concerns have outweighed safe-haven demand, compounded by multiple unfavorable factors.
Q: Is the situation in the Middle East still escalating?
A: The situation in the Middle East has not only failed to ease but has continued to escalate. The key to future trends lies in whether the “oil price-inflation” chain is confirmed.
Q: From a technical chart perspective, what is the current market situation?
A: The current market can be summarized as “bearish dominance, the bottoming process is not yet complete, but a short-term pullback is needed.”
It is worth noting that the daily RSI indicator has entered oversold territory for the first time since October 2023, suggesting a possible short-term technical rebound.
4-hour chart: Showing a stepped downward trend, with rebound highs gradually shifting lower and lows constantly being refreshed. Key Price Levels:
Support Levels: $4320-$4335, $4300 (psychological level), $4200, $3850 (if it breaks below $4200, the next target is $3850)
Resistance Levels: $4450-$4480, $4550-$4570, $4600-$4635
Q: What are some specific trading strategies for today’s market?
A: Currently, after experiencing significant market volatility, we are in a relatively weak consolidation phase.
My trading advice is:
“Sell on rallies.
For short-term support levels, consider establishing a small long position in anticipation of a rebound, but be sure to strictly control the position size.”
As shown in the chart: Gold prices are consolidating within a triangle pattern:
Current Key Support Level: $4350
Current Key Resistance Level: $4450
Trading should primarily focus on this range and employ a range-bound trading strategy.
Q: What should we focus on next? A: The following points should be focused on for the remainder of the week:
Federal Reserve officials’ speeches: Federal Reserve officials will speak on Wednesday and Thursday. Any statements regarding the interest rate path could trigger market volatility. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data released on Friday: This is the Fed’s most closely watched inflation indicator. This will be a turning point this week and could determine short-term trends.
If the PCE data exceeds expectations, gold prices may face further downward pressure; if it falls short of expectations, it could trigger an oversold rebound.
Latest developments in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia and the UAE continue to suffer drone/missile attacks. If the conflict escalates further, it could impact gold prices through oil price transmission.
Summary:
1. Today’s focus is on the $4320 to $4480 range.
2. Current strategy: Short near $4450 and consider a rebound if the price retraces to $4350.
3. The market may remain weak and volatile ahead of Friday’s PCE data release.