Since the peak in October 2024, Bitcoin has faced a brutal deleveraging, shedding nearly 50% of its value to hit local lows near $60k in early 2026. However, a shift is occurring. As the conflict in Iran intensifies, traditional risk assets are reeling from energy price shock, and markets are seeing sharp declines across several indices.
Interestingly, Bitcoin is beginning to decouple. While global equities are carving out new lows, Bitcoin is showing relative strength, trending higher within the established Fair Value range ($60k–$72k). We are seeing the “delayed safe-haven” thesis play out: initial panic causes a sell-off, but the ensuing inflationary pressure and “war-time liquidity” (potential Fed easing) are beginning to draw capital back into BTC.
The Failed Auction is the most compelling signal at the range low ($60k–$63k). Price briefly dipped below the Value Area Low (VAL), but bears failed to find “acceptance” at those lower prices. A swift recapture of the range suggests that the move lower was simply a liquidity hunt to stop out late shorts and trigger buy orders.
As long as we hold the mid-range equilibrium, the magnetic target remains the Value Area High (VAH). If the broader markets find even a temporary floor, the short-covering fuel could ignite a massive relief rally. Range Rotation Long Entry: ~$66,000 (Positioning on the reclaim of the 50-day SMA/Fair Value). Stop Loss: Below the February swing low (~$59,800).
This protects against a total range breakdown.Primary Target: $98,000 (The major descending trendline and 2026 local high).RR Ratio: ~1:5.
Lets see how it plays out.