DJI corrected to 0.382 Fibonacci after reaching ATH. Currently, we see a strong reaction from the [$44,800, $45,100] support zone. Usually, this kind of rejection after similar movements signals the end of a healthy correction and is followed by the initial trend continuation.

I see 2 possible scenarios in the short term which the price can play out. But first, the analysis:

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TECHNICALS:

1. After reaching ATH, the price corrected to 0.382 Fibonacci of the recent medium-term long movement which started on 4th April 2025 (a year ago) at $36,600.

2. The price has bounced from the [$44,800, $45,100] zone which previously played out as resistance (27th Nov. 2024, 4th Feb. 2024, 24th Jul. 2025) and on 30th March 2026 has been tested as support.

3. With the price setting a Low at $45,060, it has collected liquidity pockets from recent lows (10 Oct. 2025 and 20 Nov. 2025). This showed the relative strength of Short-Sellers which hunted the buy-side stops.

4. The recent bounce from 45,060 to 46,840 has almost reached both the 0.236 Fibonacci (taking the bearish movement $50,500 ā€“ $45,060 as the measure) and the [$46,750, $47,000] sell zone (being the defensive point of bears starting from 17th March).

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Conclusion:

While the above-mentioned data doesn’t give a clear definition of whether the price finished the correction before the bull trend continuation or the bounce is just a bull trap, some signs give us more information:

I. A Lower Low is a strong sign of continued bearish momentum.

II. A short-term long movement up to 0.618 Fibonacci and the [$48,000, $48,500] zone is required for a clearer confirmation of bulls having strength.

III. If the price reaches $48,600 (see BLUE CIRCLE), this point will be the most important for decision-making as it could either form a reversal point from resistance zone (confirming a bearish trend) or the structure will be broken, leading to a new ATH.

Below are the setups for each situation:

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### Scenario 1 (SHORT):

Trigger: Price gets rejected from the [$46,650, $47,050] zone. The bear trend continuation will be confirmed after the price closes below $45,450.

šŸŸ¢ Entry Point (SHORT): $45,450
šŸ”“ Stop-Loss: $46,075
šŸŸ” Target 1: $43,300 [R/R 1 : 3.25]
šŸŸ” Target 2: $42,250 [R/R 1 : 4.85]

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### Scenario 2 (LONG):

Trigger: Price breaks above [$46,650, $47,050] zone. In this case the bulls might control the price up to $48,600.

šŸŸ¢ Entry Point (LONG): $47,150
šŸ”“ Stop-Loss: $46,200
šŸŸ” Target: $48,600 [R/R 1 : 1.5]

In case the price reaches the $48,600 target, the new reaction of price behavior, depending on the movement strength and volumes in play, will be recalculated in order to decide the further movement direction.

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Good Luck! ā˜ŗļø

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DISCLAIMER: Not financial advice. Everyone must make trading decisions at their own risk, guided only by their own criteria and strategy for opening or not opening a trade.

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P.S. I am waiting for the price to retest the $47,000 zone and the following reaction.

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