In the gold market, bulls and bears are arguing fiercely. Many people have already lost their way, unsure whether to go long or short. Gold is no longer in the previous unilateral surging trend; it has fully entered a high-level wide-range oscillating tug-of-war pattern.
Bullish arguments: Global central banks continue to purchase gold steadily, which provides the most solid underlying support — net gold purchases by global central banks exceeded 300 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have not completely subsided. Shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainties from regional conflicts remain overhead. As long as the war has not been fully extinguished, safe-haven demand for gold will not disappear. Expectations of Fed rate cuts also give gold room for upward imagination.
Bearish factors are also real and holding gold prices back. Whenever prices rise slightly, profit-taking selling pressure emerges. More importantly, the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates firmly. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stands above 4.3%, directly raising the opportunity cost of holding gold. In a high-interest-rate environment, capital prefers U.S. Treasuries, and bulls dare not enter the market aggressively.
Going forward, gold will be a high-volatility, trendless ranging market. It will neither rise unilaterally nor fall unilaterally, but fluctuate back and forth within a range. When trading gold, we must not be greedy or dream of getting rich overnight. Nor should we follow the crowd — chasing highs when others do and cutting losses when others sell. It is easy to get trapped. Stick to the range, avoid chasing highs or bottom-fishing, take small profits and exit, avoid being washed out, and earn steady small gains.
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