What happened: Semiconductor stocks edged on Monday before paring gains as the PHLX Semiconductor Index (^SOX) attempted to recover from a 9% slide last week.
AI chip heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA) rose more than 2% before trimming gains, while AMD (AMD) jumped 2% on analyst price target calls. Broadcom (AVGO) and Intel (INTC) also gained on Monday. Marvell (MRVL) and Qualcomm (QCOM) also rose, reversing Friday’s losses.
Memory and storage leaders Micron Technology (MU) and SK Hynix (SKHY) jumped, as did Sandisk (SNDK). Among the semiconductor equipment makers, ASML (ASML), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Lam Research (LRCX) edged higher before giving up gains.
What’s behind the move: Chipmaker AMD was selected as a “top pick” by Rosenblatt, which raised its price target on the stock to $665 from $490. UBS analysts also raised their price target on the stock to $700, maintaining a Buy rating ahead of the chipmaker’s annual AI conference this week.
Despite the semiconductor pullback, Wall Street sees the AI trade intact with the semiconductor index 20% decline over the past month signaling “a positioning unwind following a 90% year-to-date rally,” according to UBS analysts.
JPMorgan strategists also noted oversold conditions for the space.
“We think that semis will find a floor soon on continued strong earnings delivery,” JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka said in a note on Monday.
“Our view is that fundamentals will likely remain constructive, as meaningful supply additions are not due before 2028,” Matejka said.
What else you need to know: Monday’s rebound in chip stocks comes as investors weigh the risks of growing global competition from Chinese startups such as Moonshot, which unveiled Kimi K3, a model that runs at a much lower cost than US models.
China’s growing ecosystem of open-weight AI models, which enterprises can download, fine-tune, and run on their own infrastructure, calls into question US valuations, particularly after the US withdrew Anthropic’s (ANTH.PVT) Fable and Mythos models over security concerns.
“The immediate market reaction — pressure on AI and semiconductor names — reflects a reassessment of whether the industry’s current capex trajectory is sustainable if similar performance can be delivered more cheaply,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote on Monday.
Artificial intelligence costs have been rising. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) last week guided to higher-than-anticipated capital expenditures, in part due to higher tool prices.
Investors will be eyeing Alphabet’s (GOOG, GOOGL) quarterly results this week for clues on its continued AI infrastructure spending, as well as any commentary on the tech giant’s own AI models.